South Florida Commercial Real Estate Splits by County in 2026
South Florida’s commercial real estate market did not move as one region in the first quarter of 2026. It moved as three distinct markets. Tri-county commercial sales volume totaled roughly $2.86 billion, down about 1% from the same period a year earlier, but that flat headline number hides sharp divergence underneath it. Palm Beach County commercial sales volume climbed 80% year over year to roughly $650 million. Miami-Dade County fell 13% to about $1.16 billion. Broward County dropped 17% to approximately $920 million.
For an investor comparing a Doral industrial building, a Fort Lauderdale retail strip, and a West Palm Beach office property, the underlying question is no longer whether South Florida commercial real estate is attractive. It clearly still is, given the capital chasing it. The question is which asset class, in which county, at which basis. At MJI Realty Group, we work with buyers on both the residential estate side and the commercial side of South Florida, and the same clients often ask about both in the same conversation. A business owner relocating to Palm Beach for tax reasons is frequently also shopping for the building that houses the business.
The labor market underneath these commercial numbers is still expanding. Total nonfarm employment in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro area grew by about 42,600 jobs year over year as of mid-2025, a 1.5% gain that outpaced the 1.1% national rate, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That made the tri-county metro one of only five of the nation’s twelve largest metropolitan areas to add payroll jobs over that period. Job growth is what ultimately fills office towers, retail centers, and apartment buildings, so a tenant demand story this strong helps explain why cap rates across most South Florida asset classes remain tighter than the national average despite a slower quarter for overall sales volume.
Industrial Real Estate: Cap Rates Compress as the Supply Wave Clears
Industrial has been the standout asset class for South Florida investors since the pandemic-era logistics boom, and 2026 is the year the construction pipeline finally catches up with demand. Florida industrial cap rates for prime Miami assets currently run approximately 5.0% to 5.3%, among the tightest in the state. Doral Class A distribution space, the tri-county market’s premier logistics submarket given its proximity to Miami International Airport and the Palmetto Expressway, commands asking rents in the $18 to $20 per square foot NNN range.
Vacancy across South Florida industrial product is expected to peak in mid-2026 as the last wave of speculative construction delivers, then tighten again as the development pipeline clears. Investors who underwrote acquisitions conservatively through the supply wave, rather than chasing pro forma rent growth, are positioned for improved net operating income performance heading into 2027. According to NAR’s Commercial Real Estate Market Insights, national industrial net absorption rose 30% year over year even as vacancy normalized, a pattern consistent with what South Florida brokers are seeing at the ground level.
For a 1031 exchange buyer moving out of a management-intensive multifamily asset, a well-located Broward or Miami-Dade industrial property remains one of the more defensible trades available in the region: fewer tenants, longer lease terms, and less day-to-day operational drag than retail or residential.
Office: A Flight to Quality, Not a Recovery Across the Board
Miami-Dade office told a more complicated story in the first quarter of 2026. The county posted 96,877 square feet of positive net absorption, and overall asking rents climbed to $66.30 per square foot on a full-service basis, up 10.6% year over year. Class A product in Brickell and Downtown Miami now commands more than $40 per square foot on a direct basis, driven by continued corporate relocations into the market.
Firms that expanded their South Florida footprint over the past twelve months include Amazon, Uber, Citadel, CI Financial, and Corient, contributing to roughly 671,000 square feet of net new expansion demand across the region in the prior year alone. Finance, technology, aviation, consumer brands, and healthcare tenants are the ones signing these leases, and they are overwhelmingly choosing new or recently renovated Class A buildings over older commodity stock.
That last point matters for anyone underwriting an office acquisition. High-quality, well-leased product in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach is attracting renewed investor interest at compressed cap rates. Older suburban office buildings without recent capital improvements remain challenged, with elevated vacancy and limited buyer demand. This is a market where the building’s finish level and lease roll schedule matter more than the address on the letterhead.
Retail: Historically Tight Vacancy, Almost No New Supply
Retail is the tightest of South Florida’s major commercial asset classes heading into the second half of 2026. Regional vacancy sits around 3.2%, well below the national average, driven by strong tenant demand against a construction pipeline that has barely produced new supply since 2020. Fort Lauderdale retail vacancy runs closer to 4%, with trailing twelve-month investment volume of roughly $1.5 billion in that submarket alone.
- Grocery-anchored shopping centers are trading at cap rates averaging around 5.7%
- Unanchored strip centers trade closer to 7.0%, reflecting the higher tenant turnover risk
- Net absorption nationally reached 4.4 million square feet in April 2026 with 2.0% rent growth, the strongest rent growth of any major property type tracked by NAR
For owner-occupant buyers, retail remains one of the more accessible entry points into South Florida commercial ownership, particularly for professionals purchasing the space their own practice or business occupies rather than leasing it long term. For pure investors, the scarcity of new grocery-anchored product means competition for existing centers is intense, and pricing discipline is essential.
Multifamily: Construction Slows, Cap Rates Stay Compressed
Multifamily construction across South Florida is decelerating sharply. Marcus & Millichap projects 2026 multifamily inventory growth of just 1.6% in both Miami and Fort Lauderdale, the slowest pace of new supply in a decade. That slowdown is already showing up in pricing. In West Palm Beach, multifamily cap rates currently range from approximately 4.50% to 5.50%, among the most compressed of any asset class in the tri-county region, with vacancy around 4.8% and rent growth near 5.5%.
The combination of slowing new supply and continued in-migration to Palm Beach County, which MIAMI Realtors research based on IRS migration data identifies as the number one county nationally for wealth migration, is keeping downward pressure on cap rates for well-located apartment product. Investors accustomed to the higher cap rates available in some Sun Belt secondary markets should expect to pay a premium for South Florida multifamily, and to underwrite returns based on rent growth and occupancy rather than acquisition yield alone.
Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Compared
The county-level divergence in first quarter 2026 sales volume is worth sitting with, because it reflects three different investor stories rather than one regional trend.
- Miami-Dade County: Sales volume down 13% to about $1.16 billion, but Class A office rents up 10.6% year over year and industrial rents holding near peak levels in submarkets like Doral. Miami-Dade remains the region’s price leader across nearly every asset class.
- Broward County: Sales volume down 17% to roughly $920 million, but multifamily sales rose 10%, industrial sales rose 2%, and retail sales rose 17%. Broward’s relative affordability compared to Miami-Dade, combined with continued net migration from Miami-Dade, supports a case for long-term value in specific asset classes even as overall dollar volume cooled.
- Palm Beach County: Sales volume up 80% to roughly $650 million, the clear outlier of the tri-county region, driven by continued high-net-worth and corporate in-migration alongside multifamily and industrial demand.
No single county is uniformly cheaper or more expensive across every property type. A Broward industrial building and a Palm Beach industrial building can trade at meaningfully different cap rates depending on tenant credit, submarket, and building age, which is why generic regional cap rate averages are a starting point for underwriting, not a substitute for a property-specific analysis.
What This Means for Investors Buying in the Second Half of 2026
A few practical conclusions follow from where the data sits right now. First, industrial remains the asset class with the clearest path to improving fundamentals, since the current vacancy peak is a known, dateable event rather than an open-ended risk. Second, office requires a much more selective approach than it did five years ago; the flight to quality is real, and buying a dated suburban office building on the assumption that a broad recovery will lift it is a weaker bet than it looks on paper. Third, retail’s scarcity of new supply supports current pricing, but it also means fewer opportunities come to market, so buyers need to move decisively when a well-located, grocery-anchored center is offered. Fourth, multifamily cap rate compression rewards patient capital more than opportunistic capital right now.
For 1031 exchange investors specifically, the compressed timeline of a like-kind exchange, 45 days to identify a replacement property and 180 days to close under IRS Section 1031 rules, makes having pre-vetted off-market opportunities available before the clock starts a real advantage. Investors coming out of a residential rental or an older office building often find industrial and grocery-anchored retail to be the two asset classes best suited to a clean, timely exchange in the current South Florida market.
Owner-occupants, meanwhile, are competing directly with pure investors for the same limited retail and small-bay industrial inventory, which is pushing some business owners toward build-to-suit and pre-leasing arrangements rather than waiting for existing product to come to market.
Financing terms also deserve a second look before assuming last year’s debt assumptions still apply. Lenders active in South Florida commercial real estate have grown more selective about sponsor experience and debt service coverage ratios on office and aging retail, even as they compete aggressively for industrial and multifamily deals with strong in-place cash flow. A buyer walking into a negotiation with financing already lined up, rather than a general pre-qualification letter, has a meaningfully stronger hand in a market where well-priced assets still draw multiple offers.
Working the Deal in a Market That Moves by County, Not by Region
A market that behaves this differently by county and by asset class rewards a broker who can move between them, not one whose expertise stops at a single submarket. That is the case for treating South Florida commercial real estate as a single connected market rather than three separate ones: capital, tenants, and even individual buyers move across the Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach County lines constantly, and a strategy built around only one county misses opportunities in the others.
At MJI Realty Group, we work with commercial buyers and sellers across all three counties, alongside the luxury residential clients who are frequently the same people wearing a different hat. Our access to off-market inventory and a qualified buyer network built over years in this specific market lets us move quickly when a well-priced industrial building, retail center, or office property comes available, often before it reaches the open listing services.
Real estate decisions depend on individual circumstances, including an investor’s tax position, timeline, and existing portfolio, and this article is general market information rather than legal, tax, or investment advice for your specific situation. If you are evaluating a South Florida commercial acquisition or disposition for the second half of 2026, an initial conversation about your specific goals and timeline is the right next step before committing capital.
